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Wednesday, April 9, 2014

2014 March Madness: Finale

Congratulations to the Connecticut Huskies, the 2014 Men's and Women's basketball champions. Congratulations also to those that bet against me these last few rounds and made some fat stacks. I wrote before the game that I was rooting for Connecticut but picking Kentucky. So what happened?

Foul shooting. This was rightfully brought up multiple times during the TV broadcast. Kentucky's inability to hit free throws and UConn's inability to miss changed the game. The broadcasters brought up this issue in the UConn - Iowa State game: when you don't miss from the line, it's incredibly hard to lose a lead. That is a preeminent reason why I stated in my preview that if UConn got a lead, look out. On the other end, I can't prove that foul shooting influences Kentucky's aggressiveness, but my conjecture is that it does. It's hard to summon the will and skill to bully your way inside and draw fouls, time after time. When the freebies aren't dropping, I think that challenge gets harder. Something to study in the future. 

Dribble Drive Offense. I believed that Kentucky's relatively simplistic dribble drive offense would provide a release valve against UConn's perimeter pressure. I was wrong. Very wrong. Ryan Boatright made sure of that. It's a funny thing how intense off ball pressure, pushing guys off their spot, can make them tentative when they get the ball. Is there really a difference between catching the ball at the 3-point line and catching it a few feet further back? If anything, the latter gives you more room to accelerate. But for the young, inexperienced Kentucky guards, it made them hesitate, doubting their ability to go around defenders and attack the rim. Remember James Young's nasty dunk and procession of freebies that cut the lead to one late in the 2nd half? Those came on rim runs, runs the other Kentucky guards were unable to replicate. Nothing against the dribble drive, but Kentucky's inability to get the defense off balance with fake actions didn't help their cause. Again, I was dead wrong. 

The Kentucky Bigs. All those highlight reel putback dunks are fun, but Kentucky's bigs also caused some major spacing issues that didn't help their guards' cause. On defense, it was a bad matchup for the Wildcats, going up against a team that relies on jumpers and consistently made the bigs show on the pick and roll. Then there's Julius Randle, who some are decrying for a poor performance in this game. My response would be that Randle balled for several straight games. He clearly needs polish, but I never doubted his effort. But his inability to take UConn inside, even with guys like Niels Giffey guarding him (sorry Niels), was a concern. I think he's a sure-fire NBA starter for defense and rebounding, but will he develop the skills to create his own offense? I didn't see that this season. 

Shabazz Napier. Post-game quotes aside, Shabazz was electrifying in this game. He had no problem dribbling into the teeth of the Kentucky defense, using a low handle to get inside and crafty hesitation moves to throw defenders off balance. Maybe a few more turnovers than you'd like, but he made some incredible passes too; that's the way he's played all year. I have little doubt that he'll succeed in the NBA as a backup guard who can start alongside strong defenders (a bigger version of Boatright). For some reason I like players that see the floor, can dribble to anywhere they want, and can shoot the lid off the defense (see Burke, Trey). 

UConn Bigs. The box score stats are wholly misleading. Phillip Nolan, DeAndre Daniels, and Amida Brimah shot 4-19 and grabbed only 11 of UConn's 34 boards. They also held Kentucky's NBA bigs to 7-17 shooting and 15 boards (out of 33). They did all the little things: protected the rim, spaced the floor, boxed the Kentucky bigs out so their guards could grab rebounds. Nolan had more fouls (4) than every other box score stat combined (1 rebound, 1 steal), but had a tangible effect on the game when he was in. 

There are some saying now that UConn wasn't this year's best team. That may very well be true (the purpose of the tourney is to crown a champion, not find the best team). But you know what? These UConn Huskies are well coached, play fantastic defense on the perimeter and inside, hit their freebies, know who their best player is, and saw the best player if this year's tournament do some ridiculous things. If this tournament was played again starting tomorrow, the Huskies probably don't win it. But with those attributes, I'm done betting against them.

#YouMakeTheCalls #YMTC #MarchMadness

Monday, April 7, 2014

2014 March Madness: The Title Game

For how great this year's games have been, Saturday's Final Four match between Florida and Connecticut was surprisingly anticlimactic for most of the second half. Good thing we had Wisconsin - Kentucky still ahead! A few thoughts and a prediction for tonight (bet against it). 

NOTE: I watched Florida - UConn on tape delay as I was attending sessions of #LDSconf - a highly recommended source of inspiration
I don't know what UConn does to  opposing offenses, but this is the second straight game where a veteran bunch running a proven system have seemed discombobulated against the Huskies D. Scottie Wilbelkin and Co. have gotten what they've wanted all tournament - pick-and-rolls that lead to layups, rim dives by the roll man, and a bevy of pie threes. Then undersized Huskies amp up the perimeter pressure and everything falls apart. Even the Gators' made baskets often came of incredible individual athleticism, the type of shots that aren't sustainable over 40 minutes. 

On offense, the Huskies took care of a few mistakes by the Florida half-court defense, and combined with a few opportune run-outs on offense, provided the catalyst for a lead the Gators couldn't surmount. That lead will be key for the Huskies tonight - for several straight games, Kevin Ollie's team have proven that they don't give up second half leads. If they can get some room tonight, expect Shabazz Napier, DeAndre Daniels, and the UConn Huskies to take down the  nets. 

The problem the Huskies have to solve, one they haven't really faced all tournament, is that of Kentucky's size. Every time the Wisconsin Badgers would go on a run, every time they seemed to have the Wildcats offense solved, someone would come up with a offensive board and putback. This Wisconsin team had 5 full days to prepare for Kentucky's size and couldn't do it. Can UConn? The other thing about Kentucky that impressed me was Coach Calipari emploring his team in the second half to act like winners and to go to the rack. It's exactly what I would have told them. The ability to take the ball via pass or dribble from the high post near the 3 point line to the block without turning it over is the most valuable perimeter offensive skill. It's why I thought Trey Burke was the best of last year's rookie class (and still believe so). The Harrisons are great shooters, but Calipari's system is designed to give them space to attack the rim. That may be a problem for UConn - they have played great defense against teams using more inclusive offensive sets. A team that relies on individual brilliance may in a weird way work against them. 

As for the Badgers - what a game. This game did nothing to disprove the fact that Frank Kaminsky, a scrub from last year who can't crack the NBA draft's top 100, was the Final Four's most impactful player. He compromised Kentucky's defense with his existence, opening driving and passing lanes for his teammates. He competed and protected the rim on D despite not having the physical tools that will see the Kentucky frontcourt players drafted ahead of him. He was a joy to watch. 

Wisconsin also impressed me with their offensive discipline and patience. They nary took a poor shot - time after time, when a Badger dribbled into trouble, he would turn, pivot, and reset the ball at the top. Despite Kentucky bottling their best player for most of the game, Wisconsin submitted a masterful offensive performance. It's hard to get to the Final Four, but something tells me Bo Ryan will be back, soon. 

PREDICTION
You have seen how pitiful my predictions have been. Yet, like Monty Python's black knight, I forge on. I've written both of these teams off so many times, to Michigan State, Wichita State, Louisville, Florida, and the like. You would think me learned by now, loathe to write one of them off again. But at that risk, I proclaim that the Kentucky Wildcats will vanquish the Connecticut Huskies and claim their 9th national title. I'm rooting for the Huskies. I love Shabazz Napier's story and Kevin Ollie's Ollieness. But Kentucky has size you can't coach, and their dribble drive offense is opening the court for the bigs. After two weeks of laser focus, the young Wildcats faltered in their last game - and still one. That's why I'm picking them in this one. Go on, Shabazz, Kevin, and DeAndre - prove me wrong. 

#YouMakeTheCalls #MarchMadness #YMTC

Tuesday, April 1, 2014

2014 March Madness: The Final Four

Each year, I think to myself that the tournament cannot get better. Each year I'm wrong. The George Masons, Butlers, and VCUs of the past are replaced by new mid-majors who play as a team and throw haymakers. Stars come out of nowhere and dazzle. Thrillers upon thrillers. And despite a bevy of last-second shots, remarkable comebacks, one of my feelings about this final four is that each team deserved to be here. Each team deserved to win. Here's why.

I know, it's a lot of red. I'm guessing you have a lot of red on yours, too.

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

2014 March Madness: The Sweet Sixteen

I did not take long for me to abandon my picks and start rooting for the Dayton Flyers. I wrote when posting my bracket that "Dayton has a shot." Did they ever. Let's recap another fantastic opening weekend while looking at the bracket carnage:



SOUTH

Thursday, March 20, 2014

2014 March Madness: The Billion Dollar Bracket

The year: 2009. Like always, I entered a bracket pool with my high school buddies Ryan and Brian. Like always, I chose the Duke Blue Devils to win it all, partly because of my respect and admiration for Coach K and his players and partly to rile the anti-Duke crowd (who I maintain are irrationally so). Back then, I had time to watch more regular season and conference tournament games. I was impressed by Jim Boehim's Syracuse squad for their defense, and Bob Huggins' collection of athletes at West Virginia (I was pulling for Da'sean Butler to make it with the Heat). I was one step from putting Butler in the Final Four, too - I hadn't watched them play and really hadn't heard much about them, but the team was getting some analytical love and I went with them to the Elite Eight. When Duke went to the Championship game and then won it all - ecstasy (though I had to keep my immediate celebration in-check, respecting the pro-Butler crowd). My bracket:? 99.9% on ESPN (I had a screenshot of it but my hard drive crashed the following year - get a backup, Xing!).

That's the best it's ever been. Usually I'm lucky to clear 70 - 80%. Even in 2009, I missed a Final Four contestant and I'm sure my opening rounds were riddle with errors. This prepares me to say confidently that I harbor no illusions of winning Quicken Loan's and Warren Buffet's $1bn challenge. I've watched sports for just over 2 decades, have filled out brackets for 1, and have been analyzing games for 5 years. In that span, I've had one really good bracket. One. I'm not going to win this thing. You aren't either. But that doesn't stop me from publishing my thoughts here.

I usually do a bunch if research, read stacks of stats, and watch game after game in preparation for bracketology. This year I went with something simpler: pick the best coach, the best talent, and most importantly, the best point guard. Just look at this list of recent Final Four PGs: Trey Burke, Michael Carter-Williams, Peyton Siva, Malcolm Armstead, Aaron Craft, Marquis Teague, Tyshawn Taylor, Joey Rodriguez, Kemba Walker, Brandon Knight, Jon Scheyer (my favorite Blue Devil, all-time), Ty Lawson, Kalin Lucas, Derrick Rose, and Mario Chalmers. Half of those guys start in the Association! May the best point guard win:

Monday, March 10, 2014

QB Corner - Matthew Stafford (DET @ PIT)

My goal for QB Corner is to survey the league's young starting quarterbacks, see how they're developing, and try to determine if they're on the right trajectory to becoming elite signal callers. How does Matthew Stafford fit in that mix? Isn't he a 5th year vet? I thought the following was kind of interesting - see if you can match the QB with his age. I'll wait:


Thursday, February 27, 2014

QB Corner - Colin Kaepernick (SEA @ SF)

QB Corner first looked at Colin Kaepernick in a tough defensive game against the Carolina Panthers. As multiple 49ers expressed prior to their playoff date in Carolina, the 49ers were missing key offensive personnel in the earlier game, including Vernon Davis for the 2nd half and Michael Crabtree for the entirety of the game.

The Crabtree injury is especially interesting given the monstrous numbers he had with Colin under center in 2012. Through the first half of this year, despite a few big games from Anquan Boldin, the 49ers receivers never looked like they had the space that Crabtree was getting last year. Even Boldin isn’t necessarily open – I have long maintained that he simply makes catches through coverage.

The real weakness was secondary receivers, as Kyle Williams, Quinton Patton, Jon Baldwin, and Company who couldn't separate from coverage. Did you know that after Boldin and Davis, the next-leading receiver by catches was fullback Bruce Miller? Or that 49ers backs had 48 catches for 443 yards and 0 TDs on the season compared to 40 grabs for 454 yards and 0 TDs from receivers not named Boldin, Davis, or Crabtree?

I wanted to study Colin in a game where he had his #1 target back, and what better game to analyze than against another fantastic defense in the Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks. This is especially important this offseason as the 49ers are looking to extend their QB. My goal is to use his numbers and tape to give a ballpark range for how much Kaepernick is worth to this team. First, the numbers from the season:

All numbers from Pro-Football Reference

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

2014 Sochi Olympics - Games Review

I like rankings. Like in Part 1, where I ranked the best uniforms at the Olympic Opening Ceremonies. Rankings can turn virtually anything into a competition. Best uniforms are just the start. Today, I will be ranking the events themselves (with some commentary of the performances thrown in). For the first time in my memory, I managed to watch each Olympic event.

Starting from worst to first:

Figure Skating Team Competition: I know this is really a combination four different events. But why are we seeing the best skaters perform both short and programs twice, once for the team competition and once for the individual medals? There's nothing really "team" about skating. Unlike gymnastics, where teammates cross train on various apparatuses, singles skaters don't skate in pairs and pairs don't ice dance. I know that more figure skating = better, but they are literally performing the same programs twice. The worst part was this format unnecessarily deprived the world the opportunity to see Evgeni Plushenko, the best male skater I've ever seen, go for one last individual gold as he left all of himself on the ice for team Russia. Ditch this format and award team medals to the most outstanding nations at the end of all the individual rounds.

Monday, February 24, 2014

2014 Sochi Olympics - Opening Ceremony Outfits

Before we begin with a review of the 2014 Winter Olympic Games at Sochi, I have to take a moment to reward the best dressed at the opening ceremonies. Hey, if competitive ice dancing is a sport, so is looking the best at the gala. Think about it: it requires preparation, training (you think they get those bodies on accident?), attention to detail, dramatic flair, and essentially all the other elements that make competitive ice dancing compelling.

These are only best outfits sorted least stylish to most. I separated them into completely arbitrary categories with an overall winner at the bottom. Let's start though with a country that really disappointed.

France - Classiest (runner up)


Thursday, January 30, 2014

QB Corner - Russell Wilson (SEA @ SF)

Congratulations to the 2013 Seattle Seahawks who have become the 2nd youngest team to make the Super Bowl. They even have a coach that looks young (despite being 62). Crucially, they are led by a young, dynamic QB, a player that has surpassed all expectations and taken the league by storm. In only his second year, Russell Wilson has exhibited tremendous command of the offense and perhaps become the league's most valuable player due to his absurd cap number of only $681 thousand. Peyton Manning may be better, but with a cap hit of $17.5 million, is he really 25x better? I think not.

First, the numbers: